Why Today’s Market Looks Less Like Stability and More Like a Trap
Chad Musselman • August 20, 2025

So here we are, staring at headlines that whisper of a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal, and useless sell-side analysts that appear on CNBC daily, looking for any excuse to backfit their evergreen “buy” ratings to some type of good news that can continue to explain 40x PEs and an S&P 200,000 target are salivating.


The narrative is obvious: peace means stability, stability means growth, and growth means stocks go higher. But anyone with more than a week’s experience in markets knows how this script can actually end: not with a euphoric rally, but with a “sell the news” thud. Markets don’t run on world peace; they run on liquidity. Take Covid for example: everyone thought the bubonic plague had landed and all life as we knew it was going to stop — so naturally the NASDAQ tripled off its lows after the Fed fire hosed trillions in liquidity, remember PPP, free cash, no payback.


A joke at the time: “The year is 2030. All mankind has died from Covid. A lone server in the basement of the New York Fed continues to bid the Dow to all-time highs.”


Make no mistake, a reversal is overdue. I know, I know — there’s no point in reminding anyone again, because it feels like the market is never going to go down. I’ve been wrong before, loudly, and on more than one occasion. But I also know that when the data screams “bubble,” ignoring it usually doesn’t end well.


On almost every objective measure, the market is not just expensive — it’s wildly overvalued. June 30th data from CurrentMarketValuation.com doesn’t just say “overvalued” — it says “strongly overvalued,” and it says it across nearly every single model that matters.


Take the Buffett Indicator. It’s sitting around 200% of GDP, more than two standard deviations above its long-term average. The last two times it got anywhere near this level were the dot-com peak in 2000 and again in late 2021. In both cases, investors were treated to drawdowns north of 40%.



The CAPE ratio tells the same story: hovering in the mid-30s today, more than two standard deviations above its mean. The only other times it has reached these levels were 1929 and 2000 — and we all know how those chapters ended.



The price-to-sales ratio is equally stretched. At more than three standard deviations above trend, the market is literally off the charts. That level of multiple expansion has never been sustained. Every time it’s gotten this far — whether 2000 or 2021 — it has unwound violently.


The mean reversion model, which plots the S&P 500 against its inflation-adjusted exponential trend line, has the index more than three standard deviations above where history says it should be. The last time it hit that level? Late 2021 — right before a 25% drawdown in 2022. The last time before that? 2000, which needs no introduction, that was the dot com bubble.


Even the interest rate model, which usually gives the market a break when yields are low, is flashing red. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 4% and the S&P 500 sitting near record highs, the model calls equities “overvalued.” Translation: even with rates this high, stocks aren’t cheap relative to bonds. The only metric not screaming bloody murder is the earnings yield gap model, which is “fairly valued.”


But “fair” in this context means equities are simply less outrageously expensive compared to Treasuries — which sold off with equities on the last pullback — not that they’re a bargain.


And all of this is happening as macro conditions worsen. The latest PPI report showed producer prices running hotter than expected.


If earnings estimates get revised down — as they inevitably will if rates stay high and costs keep creeping up — today’s stretched valuations get even worse. Expensive becomes unconscionable.



That’s when a feedback loop kicks in: weaker earnings mean weaker hiring. Job losses follow. And job losses are where people start to complain about paying for services. Our company is facing this as we speak as clients as not paying on time and delaying to pay for what they already have received.


Retirement accounts are now north of $40 trillion, and thanks to auto-enrollment and target-date defaults, much of that is funneled into index funds whether or not valuations make sense. Passive has overtaken active management, and the big three firms — Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street — collectively control tens of trillions. Their flows don’t analyze; they just buy. The bigger the stock, the bigger the allocation.


Many have already been borrowing against credit lines instead of liquidating assets. That’s leverage by another name. It works when redemptions are small, but if they build, funds flip into forced sellers at the worst possible moment. This isn’t a side pocket of the market — it’s more than half of U.S. fund assets, wired directly into retirement accounts. Job losses are the silent tripwire. When payrolls crack, the passive bid cracks, and when the passive bid cracks, the market has to drop.


Now, overlay this with crypto — the most volatile risk asset of them all — which is now embedded in the plumbing of the financial system.

I’ve talked to many of you before regarding crypto (insert tulip here……) before about Bitcoin’s “crossing the moat.” Crypto/Bitcoin is no longer knocking on the door; it’s inside the castle, in 401(k)s, ETFs, and corporate treasuries. That integration means a sharp drawdown in crypto wouldn’t just be a sideshow like during the “crypto winter”— it would be a systemic shock. In 2000, it was dot-com stocks. In 2008, it was housing. Today, it could easily be crypto that tips the first domino.


History tells us how this movie ends. When valuations are this far above trend — 1929, 2000, 2008, 2021 — the aftermath isn’t gentle mean reversion. It’s a large drawdown of assets. And every collapse has its catalyst. Maybe it’s a crypto unwind. Maybe it’s the Fed boxed in by inflation. Maybe it’s BRICS announcing a commodity-backed settlement system. Maybe it’s peace in Ukraine, perversely, removing the last bullish narrative. Maybe it’s simply the economy slowing under the weight of positive real rates until earnings crumble. The point is, with valuations this stretched, the catalyst doesn’t matter. The conditions are already there. Real Estate is at risk and rates are not helping.


And when it comes, it won’t be a glide lower. Bulls take the stairs, Bears take the window. And sure, maybe I’ve been the idiot standing by that shaft waving “watch out” while everyone else keeps partying upstairs. But history’s pretty clear about how gravity works — timing has always been my personal curse. Buy in the next six months, but protect yourself along the way.


Written with the help of research of QTR and Fringe Finance

Why Most Advisors Ignore Options and Why That’s Costing You

February 17, 2026
When I talk to traditional financial advisors about how we manage money at Full Suite Wealth, I usually get a familiar reaction. We’ll mention that we use a diversified approach, sometimes even a concentrated one when we’ve got high-conviction ideas. Then I’ll explain how we incorporate options into client portfolios, not as speculation, but as strategy. That’s when the eye roll shows up. And honestly? It’s usually not skepticism. It’s ignorance. The Problem With Most “Advisors” In this industry, there’s a difference between managing money and collecting it. Most advisors I come across aren’t actually managing anything. They talk a big game, they talk to individuals, their clients, say this and say that, but they really don't know how to manage money at all. What they’re good at is bringing assets into the firm, handing those assets off to a portfolio manager they’ve never met, and then going back out to find the next client. They repeat that cycle over and over. All they are, is a person that gathers assets, moves the assets in, and goes and finds the next client. That’s not financial strategy. That’s sales. And you, as the client, are often paying for a title — advisor — without actually getting advice. When I start talking about options with other advisors, the conversation usually ends quickly. Not because options are too complicated. But because they’ve never taken the time to understand them. The truth is, options can be a better, more capital-efficient, and more risk-aware way to achieve the same investment goals. But most advisors won’t go there because they don’t know how. How many times do these financial advisors buy something, and there's a cheaper, easier, and less capital-intensive way of doing so? I’ve seen advisors buy ETFs or individual stocks for income or exposure that could’ve been done more intelligently through options, with better risk mitigation and better outcomes. That’s not opinion. That’s math. Options Are Not Everything. But They’re Something. I’m not saying options are the holy grail. They’re not. Options aren't the end-all, be-all, but it is one great tool that you can use as part of your portfolio. What I’m saying is this: if your advisor isn’t even considering them, you should be asking why. If your advisor doesn't use options in your portfolio, then they're missing out on a great opportunity to increase your income, hedge your risks, and enhance your return. You’ve worked hard for your capital. The least your advisor should do is explore every tool available to protect it and grow it. At Full Suite Wealth, we don’t shy away from the complex. We don’t pass you off. We sit down, we explain it, and we manage it ourselves. That’s what real advisory work looks like.

How I Use Options to Increase Your Income Without Adding Risk

February 17, 2026
Let me say this upfront: using options in your portfolio doesn’t mean taking on more risk. In fact, if it’s done properly, it means taking on less. I get asked all the time, “How do you balance the desire for enhanced income with the need for risk management in your option strategies?” Here’s the answer I give clients every week, because it’s at the heart of how we manage money at Full Suite Wealth. We Hedge and Earn at the Same Time When I use option strategies to generate income, I’m not speculating. I’m hedging your downside and boosting your income at the same time. When we use enhanced income strategies using options in portfolios, what we actually do is we're hedging the portfolio to the downside while taking in current income. That doesn't make your portfolio any riskier than it already is. In fact, it lessens the total risk that you're taking on in the market. Simply put, we rent your portfolio to the market. You still own the assets. You just get paid to let someone else use them for a bit within clear guardrails. Making Money in All Market Conditions The goal is not just to survive volatility, it’s to benefit from it. We benefit from the market going up and we also benefit from the market going down. And if we can make money in markets in three different ways, up, down, or sideways that’s true risk management. That is protecting your assets and growing them over time. This isn’t about gambling on direction. It’s about designing a portfolio that makes progress no matter what the market decides to do. That's the real strategy. That’s why our firm exists. A Smoother Ride Matters You might not realize how much risk you’re taking if your portfolio is bouncing around like a rollercoaster. Our goal is to smooth that ride. We do have clients who want aggressive upside, and we have portfolios for that. But most of our clients want predictability, income, and peace of mind. They want to feel like someone is actually managing their wealth daily, actively, with a plan. We also have portfolios that almost go perfectly up right to left with just a little bit of a swiggle. What is that? That's called risk management. That's what we do. That “little bit of a swiggle”? That’s life. But your money shouldn’t feel like chaos. This Is What We Do I’m not interested in cookie-cutter advice. I started Full Suite Wealth because most people in this industry aren’t doing enough for clients. We bring something different: real integration, real strategy, and real income. A market that goes up, we can make money. A market that goes down, we can make money. And a market that goes sideways, we can make money by using our option strategies. This isn’t theory. It’s what I do for real clients, every day. And it’s not just options, we’re a family office-style firm that brings together investment management, estate planning, legal strategy, and trustee services, all under one roof. If you’ve been wondering whether your portfolio is truly working for you, or if you could be generating income without adding more exposure, we should talk.